Sunday, February 1, 2015

Kentucky Derby Longshots In 2015

How To Pick a Long Shot For The Kentucky Derby

The Derby is a big chance to win money with a long shot. There is a number of factors that contribute to the tremendous payouts. The amount of money wagered on the Kentucky Derby is staggering. This presents the bettor with almost unlimited chances to hit it big. Most of the horses have never run this far. A horse that wins from wire to wire at 6 or seven furlongs is not likely to win this race from gate to finish line. It's almost impossible to carry speed this distance. A clean trip is one of the biggest factors in this race. The best horse may not win or even contend with a bad break at the start, or by being blocked at some point in the race. There can be twenty or more horses running and most of the contenders have never had to fight for position like they will for this race. Being behind a wall of horses and getting dirt in their faces can be a new experience for some. Post position is also a factor. The #1 post or the"rail" is the most dreaded spot in this race. Handicappers can pretty much eliminate the#1 horse in the Derby. Likewise in your horse is #23 he is marooned way outside and must travel a greater distance and fight for a contending position.

Pedigree Can Make A Difference

Pedigree handicapping is an important factor is making your selections. If a horse has come from a sire and dam that were successful sprinting or running on grass (turf) they make not be a good wager for this race. Stamina will be important for this distance. Contenders that have a pedigree for longer distances will usually be among the top betting interests. In particular sires and dams that have won graded stakes races. However, these horses are young and developing at different rates so a horse that has run well in prior races may already be topped out, and a horse that has been an average performer may jump up to have the race of his life. These are the candidates that wind up being 20, 30, or even 60 to 1 and pay balloons. (my kind of horse).

Jockey And Trainer Combinations

Many experts use trainer history and success for an angle to pick a winner. Jockey selection can also be a inroad to make a pick. Little known trainers and jockeys have won this race. I will leave it at that.

The Best Long Shot For The Kentucky Derby

The list of Derby hopefuls is not clear yet so what is the horse or combinations of horses we want to give us a large payday?  I personally don't bet the favorite to win and sometimes do not even use him in the top three. I want the horse to have the ability to stay mid pack or have a good closing kick, but not to have to come from the clouds. The factor I use is the betting odds and possible payouts. You can bet a 20 to 1 horse to win and watch him place second or third and tear up your tickets or by using place, show, and exotics strategies, get payouts higher than a win bet. 

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